German Weekend

[chriscol]

Rec so far this season (pushes recorded as no bet)

1. Bundesliga 0-0
2. Bundesliga 0-0
Regionalliga: 3-4 -1.64 units
Total: 3-4 - 1.64 units

Friday:

1. Bundesliga:

München- Gladbach: München -1.5 @ 2.0

München's first official game in new stadium. They are the much better team considering also that Gladbach is already in injury problems. The only reason against München is that they just came back from a promotion trip to Japan, which could lead to tired legs, but i ll take a shot nevertheless.

2. Bundesliga:

Fürth - Dresden: Fürth -0.5 @ 1.909

Better team at home. simple as that.

Regionalliga South:

Pfullendorf- Wehen: Wehen to win @ 2.30

1st game in regionalliga south today. that's a clear mismatch. Wehen is one of the strongest teams in league against a bottom team which already has injury problems.

BOL to all

 

[deutscher]

chris - I am also on Wehen, and that match is underway. Clear mis-match, as you say.

Instead of taking the asian odds on Bayern, I went with the straight Bayern win, in combination with Hoffenheim, who face Kaiserslautern II in yet another big mis-match - and Hoffenheim are at home to boot.

My BIG game of today is RW Essen over Fortuna. I have followed both of Fortuna's matches on their Live-Ticker, and they have been poor. Against Wattenscheid they were the better team at times, but could neither keep their goal empty nor score.

Essen is still the class of that league, and they dominated the 2nd half against Luebeck, without cracking their very good defense. They simply are the better team here, and at odds over 2.0, it's too good to pass up.

For tomorrow, I will likely be on Stuttgart, who will come out firing after the embarrassing performance against Schalke in the Ligapokal. On Sunday, I may take the pk on Leverkusen - we'll see.

 

[AFLGuru]

Dunno whether you're into this sort of thing or not, but Bet365 has Borussia +0.5 -105 in the 2nd half, while Pinnacle has Bayern Munich -0.25 at +109 in the 2nd half... Bayern with only 10 men

 

[deutscher]

AFLGuru - Thank you for pointing that out - I will have a look at in-game odds tomorrow or Sunday.

For Saturday, I have taken VfB Stuttgart -0.5 against Duisburg, again a case of VfB just being the better team, with something to prove in addition.

I have also combined Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg - same story, very good teams playing at home against inferior competition; neither wants to start the new campaign on a sour note.

 

[GreenDoberman]

good luck Chris, myself and several others will be following your posts again this year.

 

[chriscol]

Yesterday brought a split with München covering (3-0 win), but Wehen only played 1-1.
The fürth game is today so still pending

Saturday:

1. Bundesliga

Wolfsburg- Dortmund: Wolfsburg pk @ 1.909

Dortmund is struggeling. They have lost some key-players and had an early upset-exit from UI- Cup. Wolfsburg also lost in 2nd round of Ui- Cup, but still seams to be in better shape than dortmund. Home advantage has prooved to be valid for them in past also. Possible draw, but i like my chances at pk-line.

Bremen- Bielefeld: Bremen -1.5 @ 2.19

Bremen should be a solid winner here. They are the much better team and play Bielefeld, which lost 7 players + their coach in off-season. Bielefeld has no real substitutes for these losses and i expect them to struggle mightily to stay in league this year.

Hamburg- Nürnberg: Hamburg -1 @ 2.0

Hamburg is the in-form team in league so far. They went through UI-Cup matches so far in very impressive style and should nhave no problem to get the home win against lowly Nürnberg.

Köln- Mainz: Köln -0.5, pk @ 1.806

Köln coming up from 2. Bundesliga has it's opening match today at home in front of sell-out 50000 fans. They are not a top team, but i expect them to be solid, especially at home.
Mainz had a surprising great season last year, which was built on some surprise success in early games. This often happens with newly promoted team in first year, when they are unknown. i expect a much tougher season for them this year.
A possible draw here, for 1.806 a great chance of a home win.

Duisburg- Stuttgart: Stuttgart pk,-0.5 under 2.5 goals @ 1.943

Duisburg is new in league and will play against relegation. Stuttgart has already shown some good form in liga-cup. They have Trappatoni as coach now, which gives them a solid defensive approach. They have good new strikers too. i like the chances of an away win. i am also going for the under. Stuttgart already was a good under bet in away games last year, but with Trappatoni as coach there will be even more focus of being solid back.

 

[chriscol]

Regionalliga Nord and Süd:

2-team parlay:

Lübeck to beat Köln @ 1.37 and Augsburg to beat München @ 1.65 for a combined 2.26

BOL to all

 

[jwunderdog]

Hell of a day Chris,


Thanksarty:

 

[AFLGuru]

JW beat me to the exact same words...

Hell of a day. Nicely done Chris

 

[chriscol]

thx, it's great to have the bundesliga back arty:

 

[GreenDoberman]

keep it up.arty:

 

[deutscher]

Nice day indeed, chris - wish I could check your picks before I book mine, but I usually don't have a chance in the morning

Well, I am on 4 sides for Sunday:

Schalke -1 - a mis-match in Gelsenkirchen, even without Lincoln in the lineup for Schalke.

Leverkusen pk - a little more cautious here, as Bayer are away, but they should turn out to be the better side here.

KSC -0.75 - mis-match - Karlsruhe added strength over the break, and Siegen will be hard pressed all season.

Rostock -1 - mis-match, even though Rostock underwent some changes, they should have too much for Offenbach.

 

[acw]

chriscol,

Nice opening! It was also interesting to see that your tips were widely followed in the Asian market.

Do you have outs where you can get a decent bet on? I guess you will have been increasing your stakes. You told me the other day that you use Pinnacle. I hardly look at their site, as they usually are always in the middle with their prices or take very small bets. Yesterday I did not fancy much, but for the few matches I did, I did take a look at Pinnacle and saw limits of $250. I guess you must be playing bigger than that.
How about quoting Macauslot or londonbet.net prices?

 

[nobooks]

chriscol,

Nice opening! It was also interesting to see that your tips were widely followed in the Asian market.

Do you have outs where you can get a decent bet on? I guess you will have been increasing your stakes. You told me the other day that you use Pinnacle. I hardly look at their site, as they usually are always in the middle with their prices or take very small bets. Yesterday I did not fancy much, but for the few matches I did, I did take a look at Pinnacle and saw limits of $250. I guess you must be playing bigger than that.
How about quoting Macauslot or londonbet.net prices?

i've a question for you acw...

how it's possible to open an account with macau slot ?
i tryed many times but i'm not able to do it...

thank you for your help

 

[acw]

how it's possible to open an account with macau slot ?
You should be able to do it online, but it will not surprise me, if it gives you headaches. Transferring money to them from oversee's can be a nightmare too. They do not seem very interested in opening up to the Western world. Reason for this is that Asia itself keeps them busy enough. What you should do, is simply go to Macau and sort it all out over there. Macau is an interesting place! Make it your next holiday destination!

 

[colton]

The first weeks are the best to bet soccer

Hi Chris and all,

from my experience in betting soccer it is best to bet the first 3-4 weeks. And bet heavy, because you will never make easier money in soccer like in the beginning of a new season. Oddsmakers need to adjust and that is difficult for them, because nobody really knows where a team stands. Even Oddsmakers don't have a clue in the first weeks, because you have to consider a lot of things: New Signings: how will the player fit in? New coach: How will the new coach effect the system a team is playing (best example is Stuttgart, Stuttgart was under Magath a team playing the most attractive attacking football with a lot of young and hungry talent. Now Stuttgart will probably play a very tactical and defensive system under Trapattoni. And all the best young players are gone (Kuranyi, hleb, and Lahm) and they bought Stars with a name and a lot experience. So, this team has totally changed. Expect from Trapattoni a lot of games under 2,5 goals and very ugly games like the one against Duisburg. You can make good money in the first weeks with the runline. The odds for the runline for Hamburg and Bremen were a gift. How can you give Hamburg on the -1 Runline plus money when you know they have made good new signings, they are in full shape playing already for weeks UI-Cup and Nürnberg is a much weaker team and didn't win in Hamburg since 20 Games. Such gifts you will not see anymore as season goes on.Normally soccer is one of the most difficult sports to cap as you have 3 outcomes and not 2 like in baseball or basketball. So, if you lost lot of money in baseball this year, try betting soccer the first 2-3 Weeks before NFL starts to roll again.

Btw: Great capping chris. Do you play at Pinnacle?

cheers,

colton

 

[chriscol]

chriscol,

Nice opening! It was also interesting to see that your tips were widely followed in the Asian market.

Do you have outs where you can get a decent bet on? I guess you will have been increasing your stakes. You told me the other day that you use Pinnacle. I hardly look at their site, as they usually are always in the middle with their prices or take very small bets. Yesterday I did not fancy much, but for the few matches I did, I did take a look at Pinnacle and saw limits of $250. I guess you must be playing bigger than that.
How about quoting Macauslot or londonbet.net prices?

i am still using mainly pinnacle and they have much higher limits than 250$ for example right now 1. Bundesliga 4000 € and 2. Bundesliga 800€ for today's matches. probably you saw the 250 on some regionalliga games. pinn also increases limits coming closer to game time. so i am fine there. they offer everything i need right now, besides totals on regionalliga.
Does anybody see a book with totals on regionalliga?

 

[GreenDoberman]

Colton, good points made, all the value is sucked out after a few weeks. That could be true of just about any sport with a rapid turnover of players.

 

[chriscol]

Hi Chris and all,

from my experience in betting soccer it is best to bet the first 3-4 weeks. And bet heavy, because you will never make easier money in soccer like in the beginning of a new season. Oddsmakers need to adjust and that is difficult for them, because nobody really knows where a team stands. Even Oddsmakers don't have a clue in the first weeks, because you have to consider a lot of things: New Signings: how will the player fit in? New coach: How will the new coach effect the system a team is playing (best example is Stuttgart, Stuttgart was under Magath a team playing the most attractive attacking football with a lot of young and hungry talent. Now Stuttgart will probably play a very tactical and defensive system under Trapattoni. And all the best young players are gone (Kuranyi, hleb, and Lahm) and they bought Stars with a name and a lot experience. So, this team has totally changed. Expect from Trapattoni a lot of games under 2,5 goals and very ugly games like the one against Duisburg. You can make good money in the first weeks with the runline. The odds for the runline for Hamburg and Bremen were a gift. How can you give Hamburg on the -1 Runline plus money when you know they have made good new signings, they are in full shape playing already for weeks UI-Cup and Nürnberg is a much weaker team and didn't win in Hamburg since 20 Games. Such gifts you will not see anymore as season goes on.Normally soccer is one of the most difficult sports to cap as you have 3 outcomes and not 2 like in baseball or basketball. So, if you lost lot of money in baseball this year, try betting soccer the first 2-3 Weeks before NFL starts to roll again.

Btw: Great capping chris. Do you play at Pinnacle?

cheers,

colton

Colton, welcome to soccer / football- forum. where are you from in germany?
you are right and wrong iMO. yesterday we had two real gifts in bremen and hamburg. but in general i dont find it much easier in the beginning of season. yes, you find lines for teams that are off, but it's also much more difficult to cap for us, not only the books. you win some on the bad lines, but you also loose some on teams you misjudge. it's all about getting the info quicker than the books... looks carefully in the news in preseason and even more important at the first 2 or 3 games to find teams who dont fulfill expectations (positive or negative).
That#s why the local approach i am following here here very important. IMO you can cap internation leagues (especially the big ones), by watching tv and reading standings, but the real info "between the lines" you can only get if you are closely following a league and have access to more information like newspapers or local tv. That's why i am sharing german leagues here, and follow others with english league or whereever they are from.

 

[chriscol]

sunday:

1. Bundesliga:

Frankfurt- Leverkusen: Leverkusen pk,-0.5 @ 2.0

Leverkusen is the better team here. They have won last 4 matches in frankfurt. problem is both teams have struggled in preseason, and especially leverkusen has not found it's 11 starting players yet. it s not a strong play, but i ll go for it.

Just, for info..i will not play schalke-kaiserslautern..too many injury, suspension problems for schalke. i am also not sure what to expect from kaiserslautern. schalke should win, but i just have a feeling this could be very close or maybe even a surprise.

2. Bundesliga:

Unterhaching- Paderborn: Paderborn +0.5 @ 2.09

Unterhaching has been one of the bottom teams already last year. they had a one-man offense in copado, who almost scored all their goals. he went to franfurt now and there is no real replacement. they will struggle big time against relegation. Paderborn is a solid team coming up from regionalliga. although also to be expected being one of the bottom teams, i like their chances of getting at least a draw here. Unterhaching is one of the overvalued teams Colton is talking about.

Freiburg- Burghausen: Freiburg -0.5,-1 @1.935

Better team at home. Freiburg favorite to go straight back up again to 1. Bundesliga.

Ahlen - 1860 München: München -0.5 @2.02

München was one of my money maker teams and of last season. a very young and talented team they came up surging into promotion races after a terrible start and were very closly denied in the end. Now they have gained more experience and will be ready from the start to lead the league. it's a bit dangerous play as ahlen usually i quite strong at home, but i ll go for it nevertheless.

BOL to all